Mizuho named Airbnb (ABNB) as its top pick across Internet coverage, raising its price target to $245 from $200 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The stock currently trades at $176.37.
Mizuho sees Airbnb positioned to build a multi-billion dollar hotel business on its platform using artificial intelligence to expand beyond its legacy short-term rental business. The firm notes the company's improved operating culture is showing up in results with significant runway remaining.
Mizuho increased its estimates above consensus. The firm projects room night growth of approximately 12% in 2027 and 11.5% in 2028. Revenue growth is expected at 15.4% in 2027 and 14.8% in 2028, with earnings per share growth of 18% and 29% respectively.
Mizuho forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $6.16 billion in 2027, compared to Street estimates of $5.77 billion, and $7.38 billion in 2028 versus Street estimates of $6.57 billion. The firm expects EPS of $6.43 in 2027 and $8.26 in 2028, compared to consensus of $6.23 and $7.35.
The bullish case centers on Airbnb's improving operating culture driving faster execution and accelerating growth in the core business, which marks the fastest room night growth in three years. Mizuho highlighted upcoming product cycles including hotel supply expansion, dynamic pricing, advertising, loyalty programs, and AI expansion into new verticals. Hotel growth accelerated from the second quarter to the third quarter, contributing an estimated 70 basis points of growth.
The $245 price target is based on 30 times 2028 estimated GAAP EPS and 25 times enterprise value to EBITDA. The stock currently trades at approximately 29 times 2027 estimates and 23 times 2028 estimates.
Investors monitoring ABNB should track quarterly room night growth trends and the execution of hotel supply expansion and AI initiatives against Mizuho's elevated revenue and profitability forecasts.